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The boutique business is dead, the future is for blue-collar projects»

We will forget about excess income, learn how to optimize expenses, pay taxes in full, stop dreaming of getting rich on mining and believe in the construction business again. Forecast for 2018 from German Klimenko, adviser to the President of the Russian Federation on the Internet
You’ll have to work harder for less money

2017 was the year when Russian businesses lost the flow of uncontrolled cash and lost the ability to master money received at low interest rates in foreign banks. The main thing that this has affected is that dubious and small banks, as well as firms that profited from them, have left the market. Their place is taken by businesses that can offer consumers a specific product for understandable money.

The symbol of the capital of the past years were the offices of banks on the Central streets, the symbol of the new Moscow was “Moskhoztorg”. In fact, Moskhoztorg is an ordinary kiosk with a well-chosen product, built inside the house, and they make sales, and banks die.

The same goes for boutiques. The time of boutiques is over: in their place came a more modest business that is designed for” blue collar ” and average citizens. This is now a General trend.

The Pyaterochka grocery store chain is thriving, as far as I can tell. “Azbuka Vkusa” has been re-profiled on the move and now insists that they are not a premium class at all, but an ordinary retail chain. A few years ago, it was impossible to imagine that Azbuka Vkusa would position itself as an ordinary grocery store with high-quality cooking. But now, this day has come.

Everyone who closely follows the market is reducing the consumption class. In past years, we have grown faster, consumed faster, borrowed faster, and now everyone will have to take a step back. Not two, not three, not five, just one step.

I know a lot of people in audit firms. They all lowered their salaries because the sweet customers who took out loans from American banks left. In order to make money in Russian business, they have to work more carefully for less money. And so everywhere. In the salons of mobile operators, the luxury segment has significantly declined, but the demand for low-cost functional Chinese phones is growing.

I think the principle of “working more carefully for less money” will become a defining one for all Russian business in the near future.

The future lies in optimizing operational costs

Previously, business owners wanted to have a monopoly on each employee, now it is enough that the work is just done. Why keep an accountant in the office? It is easier to outsource accounting and let them do business virtually. Two hours of work a week on the remote site is enough to close the operational tasks of an average company.

This change is not due to the crisis: the model of consumption and asset management has simply changed. Apartments stopped buying not only because there was less free money. Many have realized that a Bank account is a more reliable asset than square meters. We have long lived under the influence of the cult of scarcity during socialism: a car is cool, your own house is cool, an apartment in the property is necessary; if you build a successful business, then keep an office 400 meters away and all employees are driven to the state. Now the trend has changed.

I know a lot of non-poor companies that live in co-working spaces. They are concerned not with status, but with efficiency, and they benefit from it. For this reason, many modern businessmen focus on the company’s decentralization. This is another trend.

Previously, departments were gathered under one roof, because there was no quality communication, and everyone had to communicate with each other somehow. Now, as soon as the office has an Internet connection with a guaranteed speed of 100 Mbit / s, it turns out that you can live comfortably when accountants are sitting in Orel, programmers in Stavropol, the head of the planning Department in Kamchatka — and all work together quietly. A new class of employees is being formed-managers and employees-who are able to be effective in these conditions.

Don’t hate online sales registers

Many last year were horrified by the total planting of online sales registers. I sympathize with this state initiative.

The main task of the business is to earn and develop along with the rest of the market. The amount of tax burden in this case is not so important. It is much more important that everyone plays by the same rules. There are countries in the world where the average tax burden reaches 70%, but business is doing well, because everyone is developing and living in the same conditions.

If someone sells in cash, it is impossible to compete with them by paying taxes, no matter how low the tax rate is. If everyone pays taxes on an equal basis, this creates an environment in which long-term planning is possible, there is no need to optimize salary costs and try to go to zero by contacting questionable suppliers.

The one-time mandatory introduction of online sales registers for all retail market participants creates a common field of play for all according to the same rules. Of course, this measure will not completely solve the problem of cashing out, but online sales registers are an important step towards creating equal retail conditions for all.

Now your competitor will not be able to get a product twice as cheap as yours, just because it was transported past customs. Behind the facade of one official store will not hide five one-day stalls that sell goods at bargain prices, because they are spent only on couriers and online advertising.

Of course, the market will adapt to the new conditions for some time. However, I think it is important to understand that online sales registers are not a measure of stricter trading rules, but a measure of their unification and administration.

Here’s a simple example: if you follow the rules of the road, their stricter control will not affect you in any way. But as a motorist, you are interested in everyone driving on the roads on the same terms. If someone knows that they can break the speed limit and they will get nothing for it, this will create a dangerous situation of inequality on the road. Now such “reckless drivers” in the trade will be caught and severely punished. For law-abiding “drivers” this is good news.

Don’t play cryptotrading

A new word in the dictionary of Russian business last year – cryptocurrencies. It is so often uttered in news, articles and advertising that many began to perceive cryptocurrencies as a quick and guaranteed way to get rich.

I think it’s too risky a story. I would not recommend that anyone take it so seriously as to risk their main assets. I personally know many miners and I can say with confidence that the profitability of this market is not the highest right now. If in relation to these games at all we can talk about profitability. But the risk of volatility, on the contrary, is prohibitively high: the attractiveness of mining depends too much on how the exchange rate of cryptocurrencies and their turnover conditions change.

If you still really want to go into this business, for example, to feel fashionable, I would strongly advise you not to try to earn money on the cryptocurrency exchange rate. Better invest in mining. You can collect mining farms on video cards or invest in ASICs – there is no special difference, mine, earn cryptocurrency, try to change it to rubles and hope that Sberbank will not block your accounts for this.

As long as the exchange rate was $ 20,000 for Bitcoin, it was quite profitable. Miners, focusing on this course, gained equipment, but now, it fell almost twice and all abruptly went to a loss. This is a good time to buy out a crypto farm from one of them and join the ranks of new gold prospectors.

What I would definitely not recommend investing any money in is cryptotrading. Now all advertising spaces on the Internet are filled with ads: “Bitcoin has grown 5 times, Ethereum-6 times! Pay and earn!”. There is one unshakable rule: where profits are higher, losses are higher. Where profits become exorbitant, losses can be the same.

Everyone who caught the 90th, remember the speculation in shares of “MMM”, “Hermes” or “hopra”. Cryptotrading is a phenomenon from the same series. The risk of losing is higher here than in the casino. Therefore, my advice is: if you have extra money and really want to, invest in mining, but do not play with cryptocurrency rates.

The worst has already happened to real estate

The sacred cow of the Russian market is the construction business. Last year, many people feared that she was about to go under the knife. I think these fears are greatly exaggerated.

The Moscow real estate market is in mourning due to the fact that in recent years it has been actively built with an eye to the future, and the future has come and made its own adjustments to these plans. But there are still opportunities for construction in the regions. Beyond the borders of the Moscow ring Road, the real estate market has a life. The profitability there is completely unusual for Moscow developers – there are no capital superprofits in the regions, but the construction market lives there and earns reasonable money.

So I would advise you to calm down on this score: the construction market is alive. In large cities, it will take a long time to recover to its former volumes. those who have lived in this business until today will retain their positions, but they are unlikely to significantly improve in the next 12 months. I don’t think they need to panic anymore. Everyone else needs to accept that the worst of what could have happened to the real estate market has already happened, and we can hardly expect a deeper fall.

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